I’m now studying Time Series forecasting in my Nanodegree and have just gotten past the section about exponential smoothing and onto ARIMA. And to be honest, I’m a little lost.

The tools are doing a good job of making up the gap, with a few options set up Alteryx can do most of the work for you.
I do not really understand what I’m doing, the concept alone is baffling me.
BUT
Now I know the names of the models and some details around them. Which means I can look stuff up, research.
Research is familiar territory.
So I may not have a good idea of what I’m doing right now and why it’s working, but I will. For now, I just need to plow through and finish this thing!
Understanding comes in layers sometimes. You’ll get there! Just don’t give up on it until you’re satisfied 🙂