ARIMA Whut?

I’m now studying Time Series forecasting in my Nanodegree and have just gotten past the section about exponential smoothing and onto ARIMA. And to be honest, I’m a little lost.

The tools are doing a good job of making up the gap, with a few options set up Alteryx can do most of the work for you.

I do not really understand what I’m doing, the concept alone is baffling me.

BUT

Now I know the names of the models and some details around them. Which means I can look stuff up, research.

Research is familiar territory.

So I may not have a good idea of what I’m doing right now and why it’s working, but I will. For now, I just need to plow through and finish this thing!